Climate Change
Brett W. Parris

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Introduction

Climate change is fundamentally a development problem, not simply an environmental problem. Anthropogenic (human-induced) climate change has been caused predominantly by the past development of today’s rich countries, and unless greenhouse gas emissions are cut drastically, it will be exacerbated by their continued economic growth and by the development of today’s poor countries.

The poor are currently suffering and will continue to suffer the most from climate change. They are least able to protect themselves from its effects and they are least able to recover from climatic disasters. They tend to live in the most vulnerable areas, such as low-lying land prone to flooding, or marginal agricultural land prone to drought. They are the most vulnerable to the spread of tropical diseases. They are more likely to have to leave their homes in search of water or to escape flooding. They are the most vulnerable to the effects of the conflicts likely to arise from international tensions over water, energy and displaced people. Climate change will exacerbate poverty and the solutions proposed to help mitigate and adapt to climate change will affect the trajectory of every country’s future development.

 Responses to questions & objections on climate change

Climate Change scenarios - a very simple automated distillation of the IPCC and Stern Review projections for different temperature increases.

World Vision Australia's Submission to the Garnaut Climate Change Review - April 2008

World Vision Australia's Submission to the Senate Inquiry on the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme - April 2009

Climate Change Speech - One Just World Series - 30 July 2008    Transcript    Audio   Video:   Part 1    Part 2

Radio interview - Radio Australia - 22 September 2008

Interview with Tracy Spicer for World Vision.

Concerns with Garnaut's Recommendations on Targets  - 26 September 2008  (Focuses on the 550 ppm recommendation in the Targets and Trajectories paper)

Bushfires & Climate Change

In the wake of the catastrophic bushfires experienced by Victoria in February 2009, it is worth highlighting some reports outlining the implications of climate change for the frequency and severity of bushfires in Australia:

Lucas, C., Hennessy, K., Mills, G. and Bathols, J., (2007) "Bushfire Weather in Southeast Australia: Recent Trends and Projected Climate Change Impacts", Consultancy Report prepared for The Climate Institute of Australia, Sydney & Melbourne, Bushfire CRC Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, September, iv + 80 pp.

Climate Institute (2007) Bushfire Weather in Southeast Australia, Climate Institute Media Brief: Victoria, 3 pp.

Prof Barry Brook also has a terrific post on the influence of climate change on the extreme weather that produced the fires here, including a link to a paper released by the Bureau of Meteorology: Special Climate Statement 17: The Exceptional January-February 2009 Heatwave in South-Eastern Australia.

Barry quotes a colleague from the Bureau of Meteorology who remaked:

“Given that this was the hottest day on record on top of the driest start to a year on record on top of the longest driest drought on record on top of the hottest drought on record the implications are clear...  It is clear to me that climate change is now becoming such a strong contributor to these hitherto unimaginable events that the language starts to change from one of “climate change increased the chances of an event” to “without climate change this event could not have occured”.

The Firefigher's union also came out on February 12th with an open letter to the Australian government saying that the extreme conditions that produced the recent catastrophic fires were likely to increase with climate change, and that with lives on the line, Australia should be doing more to prevent dangerous climate change. 

Climate Change Likely To Be More Devastating Than Experts Predicted, Warns Top IPCC Scientist

15 February 2009: IPCC scientist Chris Field of Stanford University and the Carnegie Institution for Science warned that without decisive action, climate change was likely to accelerate at a much faster pace than predicted, with higher temperatures melting the Arctic tundra and drying out tropical forests, leading to forest fires. Together these processes would release billions of tons of greenhouse gas that could raise global temperatures even more: "There is a real risk that human-caused climate change will accelerate the release of carbon dioxide from forest and tundra ecosystems, which have been storing a lot of carbon for thousands of years ... We don't want to cross a critical threshold where this massive release of carbon starts to run on autopilot."

Ian Plimer's book Heaven + Earth

Some of you may have seen reports or heard interviews with geologist Ian Plimer on his book 'Heaven + Earth'. The book seems to be a rehash of a bunch of red herrings from the blogosphere, misunderstandings and what appears to be a solid dose of willfull ignorance and deliberate misrepresentation. This combination ensures that it has been met with raptuous acclaim from many who seem unconcerned by the accuracy of the arguments as long as it gives them amunition to fight their culture wars.

For some more useful perspectives, listen to Kurt Lambeck president of the Australian Academy of Science and professor of Geophysics at ANU.
And again in a more recent interview.

Read Prof Barry Brook's blog review

Read Ian Enting from Melbourne Uni's point-by-point refutation

Read Tim Lambert's debunking at Deltoid

Or read the review by Michael Ashley, Professor of Astrophysics at the University of New South Wales, that appeared in the Weekend Australian.

You may also be interested in George Monbiot's futile attempts to get Professor Plimer to respond to some of the specific and substantial criticisms that have been made of his book. See here and  here.

Books
Papers & Chapters
Quotes
Links

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Books & Reports

Ackerman, F., (2008) Can We Afford the Future? The Economics of a Warming World, The New Economics Series; Zed Books, London & New York, viii +151 pp.

Archer, D., (2008) The Long Thaw: How Humans are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth’s Climate, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 196 pp.

Blair, T. and The Climate Group, (2008) "Breaking the Climate Deadlock: A Global Deal for Our Low-Carbon Future", Report submitted to the G8 Hokkaido Toyako Summit June 2008, 64 pp.

Commission on Climate Change and Development, (2009) "Closing the Gaps: Disaster Risk Reduction and Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries", Report of the Commission on Climate Change and Development, Stockholm, Commission on Climate Change and Development, May, xxiv + 80 pp.

** DeCanio, S.J., (2003) Economic Models of Climate Change: A Critique, Palgrave Macmillan, New York & Houndmills, Basingstoke, UK, xiii + 203 pp.
[I cannot recommend DeCanio's book highly enough. It's aimed at economists, so it may not be an easy read for the general reader, but anyone involved in producing or consuming economic models of climate change, or developing climate change policy should read this book. It is especially recommended for more advanced economics students, who won't get taught most of this stuff in university or grad school. DeCanio picks up many of the issues I outline here.]

Diesendorf, M., (2007) Greenhouse Solutions with Sustainable Energy, University of New South Wales Press, Sydney, xvi + 413 pp.

Dyer, G., (2008) Climate Wars, Scribe, Melbourne, xiv + 256 pp.

Friel, H., (2010) The Lomborg Deception: Setting the Record Straight about Global Warming, Yale University Press, New Haven, CT & London, xi + 258 pp.

Flannery, T., (2005) The Weather Makers: The History and Future Impact of Climate Change, Text Publishing, Melbourne, 332 pp.

Hamilton, C., (2007) Scorcher: The Dirty Politics of Climate Change, Black Inc. Agenda, Melbourne, 266 pp.

Hoggan, J. and Littlemore, R., (2009) Climate Cover-Up: The Crusade to Deny Global Warming, Greystone Books, Vancouver, 250 pp.

IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. Solomon, S., Qin , D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M. and Miller, H.L.; Cambridge University Press, Cambridge & New York, pp. ix + 996.

IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change", ed. Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J. and Hanson, C.E.; Cambridge University Press, Cambridge & New York, pp. ix + 976.

IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Mitigation, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. Metz, B., Davidson, O.R., Bosch, P.R., Dave, R. and Meyer, L.A.; Cambridge University Press, Cambridge & New York, viii + 851  pp.

IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report.

Karl, T.R., Melillo, J.M. and Peterson, T.C. (Eds.), (2009) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: A State of Knowledge Report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge & New York, 188  pp.

Luetz, J., (2008) Planet Prepare: Preparing Coastal Communities in Asia for Future Catastrophes, World Vision International, Asia-Pacific Regional Office, Bangkok, 123 pp.

Lynas, M., (2007) Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet, Fourth Estate, London, xxiii + 358 pp.

MacCracken, M.C., Moore, F. and Topping, J.C., Jr. (Eds.), (2008) Sudden and Disruptive Climate Change: Exploring the Real Risks and How We Can Avoid Them, Earthscan, London & Sterling VA, xvii + 326 pp.

Mallon, K. and Hughes, M., (2008) "Industrial Constraints and Dislocations to Significant Emissions Reductions by 2050", A Report Commissioned by WWF Australia, Sydney & Brisbane, Climate Risk, August, 68 pp.

Monbiot, G., (2007) Heat: How We Can Stop the Planet Burning, Penguin, London, with a new 2007 Preface, xxix + 279 pp.

Morgan, G. and McCrystal, J., (2009) Poles Apart: Beyond the Shouting, Who's Right About Climate Change?, Scribe, Melbourne, 287 pp.

National Research Council, (2002) Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises, by the Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, Ocean Studies Board, Polar Research Board, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council, Chaired by Richard B. Alley; National Academy Press, Washington DC, xii + 230 pp.

Oreskes, N. and Conway, E.M., (2010) Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming, Bloomsbury Press, New York, Berlin & London, 355 pp.

Pearce, F., (2007) With Speed and Violence: Why Scientists Fear Tipping Points in Climate Change, Beacon Press, Boston, xxvi + 278 pp.

Pearse, G., (2007) High & Dry: John Howard, Climate Change and the Selling of Australia's Future, Penguin, Melbourne, 480 pp.

Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Schellnhuber, H.J., Alcamo, J., Barker, T., Kammen, D.M., Leemans, R., Liverman, D., Munasinghe, M., Osman-Elasha, B., Stern, N. and Wæver, O., (2009) "Synthesis Report: Climate Change  - Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions, Copenhagen 2009, 10-12 March", University of Copenhagen, 39 pp.

Rummukainen, M., Räisänen, J., Björnsson, H. and Christensen, J.H., (2010) "Physical Climate Science since IPCC AR4: A Brief Update on New Findings between 2007 and April 2010", TemaNord 2010:549, Copenhagen, Nordic Council of Ministers, 88 pp.

Schellnhuber, H.J., Cramer, W., Nakicenovic, N., Wigley, T.M.L. and Yohe, G. (Eds.), (2006) Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, xiii + 392  pp.

Schneider, S.H., (2009) Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save the Earth's Climate, National Geographic, Washington DC, viii + 295 pp. [A terrific book from the late, great Steve Schneider]

Schubert, R., Schellnhuber, H.J., Buchmann, N., Epiney, A., Grießhammer, A., Kulessa, M., Messner, D., Rahmstorf, S. and Schmid, J., (2008) "Climate Change as a Security Risk", London, Earthscan for the German Advisory Council on Global Change, xix + 248 pp.

Spencer, N. and White, R., (2007) Christianity, Climate Change and Sustainable Living, SPCK, London, xiv + 236 pp.

Spratt, D. and Sutton, P., (2008) Climate Code Red: The Case for Emergency Action, Scribe, Melbourne, xv + 304 pp.

Stern, N.H., (2006) The Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 712 pp.

The National Academies, (2010) Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change, Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change; The National Academies of the United States: National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine & National Research Council, Washington DC, 325 pp.

The National Academies, (2010) Advancing the Science of Climate Change, Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change; The National Academies of the United States: National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine & National Research Council, Washington DC, 506 pp.

The National Academies, (2010) Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change, Panel on Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change; The National Academies of the United States: National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine & National Research Council, Washington DC, 300 pp.

The National Academies, (2010) Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change, Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change; The National Academies of the United States: National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine & National Research Council, Washington DC, 258 pp.

UNEP, (2009) Climate in Peril: A Popular Guide to the Latest IPCC Reports, GRID-Arendal & SMI Books: Arendal, Norway & United Nations Environment Program: Nairobi, Kenya, 59 pp.

Worldwatch Institute, (2009) State of the World 2009: Into a Warming World, W. W. Norton, New York & London, xxv + 262 pp.

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Papers & Chapters

Climate Change - Science
Climate Change - Mitigation
Climate Change - Impacts & Adaptation
Climate Change - Economic Models
Climate Change - Health
Climate Change - Sceptics & Denialists

Climate Change - Science

Alley, R.B., (2004) "Abrupt Climate Change", Scientific American, Vol. 291, No. 5, November, pp. 62-69.

Allen, M.R., Frame, D.J., Huntingford, C., Jones, C.D., Lowe, J.A., Meinshausen, M. and Meinshausen, N., (2009) "Warming Caused by Cumulative Carbon Emissions Towards the Trillionth Tonne", Nature, Vol. 458, No. 7242, 30 April, pp. 1163-1166.

Bamber, J.L., Alley, R.B. and Joughin, I., (2007) "Rapid Response of Modern Day Ice Sheets to External Forcing", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Vol. 257, No. 1-2, 15 May, pp. 1-13.

Bamber, J.L., Riva, R.E.M., Vermeersen, B.L.A. and LeBrocq, A.M., (2009) "Reassessment of the Potential Sea-Level Rise from a Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet", Science, Vol. 324, No. 5929, 15 May, pp. 901-903.

Benestad, R.E., (2005) "A Review of the Solar Cycle Length Estimates", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, L15714, 13 August.

Buchanan, M., (2007) "Less Reticence on Nonlinear Climate Change", Nature Physics, Vol. 3, May, pp. 291.

Chen, J.L., Wilson, C.R. and Tapley, B.D., (2006) "Satellite Gravity Measurements Confirm Accelerated Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet", Science, Vol. 313, No. 5795, 29 September, pp. 1958-1960.

Clark, P.U., McCabe, A.M., Mix, A.C. and Weaver, A.J., (2004) "Rapid Rise of Sea Level 19,000 Years Ago and its Global Implications", Science, Vol. 304, No. 5674, 21 May, pp. 1141-1144.

Duffy, P.B., Santer, B.D. and Wigley, T.M.L., (2009) "Solar Variability Does Not Explain Late-Twentieth-Century Warming", Physics Today, Vol. 62, No. 1, January, pp. 48-49.

EPICA Community Members, (2004) "Eight Glacial Cycles from an Antarctic Ice Core", Nature, Vol. 429, No. 6992, 10 June, pp. 623-628.

Foukal, P., Fröhlich, C., Spruit, H. and Wigley, T.M.L., (2006) "Variations in Solar Luminosity and their Effect on the Earth's Climate", Nature, Vol. 443, No. 7108, 14 September, pp. 161-166.

Gillett, N.P., Stone, D.A., Stott, P.A., Nozawa, T., Karpechko, A.Y., Hegerl, G.C., Wehner, M.F. and Jones, P.D., (2008) "Attribution of Polar Warming to Human Influence", Nature Geoscience, Vol. 1, No. 11, November, pp. 750-754.

Glickson, A.Y., (2008) "Milestones in the Evolution of the Atmosphere with Reference to Climate Change", Australian Journal of Earth Sciences, Vol. 55, No. 2, pp. 125-139.

Hansen, J.E., (2005) "A Slippery Slope: How Much Global Warming Constitutes "Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference"?" Climatic Change, Vol. 68, No. 3, February, pp. 269-279.

Hansen, J.E., (2007) "Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate", Testimony of James E. Hansen, 4273 Durham Road, Kintnersville, PA to Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming United States House of Representatives, 26 April 2007, 18 pp.

Hansen, J.E., (2007) "Political Interference with Government Climate Change Science", Testimony of James E. Hansen to the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, United States House of Representatives, 19 March 2007, 12 pp.

Hansen, J.E., (2007) "Scientific Reticence and Sea Level Rise", Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 2, No. 2, April - June, pp. 6.

Hansen, J.E., Sato, M., Kharecha, P., Russell, G., Lea, D.W. and Siddall, M., (2007) "Climate Change and Trace Gases", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, Vol. 365, No. 1865, 15 July, pp. 1925-1954.

Hansen, J.E., Sato, M., Kharecha, P., Beerling, D., Berner, R., Masson-Delmotte, V., Pagani, M., Raymo, M., Royer, D.L. and Zachos, J.C., (2008) "Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?" Open Atmospheric Science Journal, Vol. 2, pp. 217-231.

Harvey, F. and Pickard, J., (2008) "Stern Takes Bleaker View on Warming", The Financial Times, London.

Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Mumby, P.J., Hooten, A.J., Steneck, R.S., Greenfield, P., Gomez, E., Harvell, C.D., Sale, P.F., Edwards, A.J., Caldeira, K., Knowlton, N., Eakin, C.M., Iglesias-Prieto, R., Muthiga, N., Bradbury, R.H., Dubi, A. and Hatziolos, M.E., (2007) "Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification", Science, Vol. 318, No. 5857, 14 December, pp. 1737-1742.

Houghton, J., (2007) "Global Warming, Climate Change and Sustainability: Challenge to Scientists, Policy-makers and Christians", Briefing Paper 14, Cheltenham, UK, The John Ray Initiative, 16 pp.

Houghton, R.A., (2007) "Balancing the Global Carbon Budget", Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Vol. 35, May, pp. 313-347.

Howat, I.M., Joughin, I. and Scambos, T.A., (2007) "Rapid Changes in Ice Discharge from Greenland Outlet Glaciers", Science, Vol. 315, No. 5818, 16 March, pp. 1559-1561.

Joint Science Academies, (2001) "The Science of Climate Change", A joint statement issued by the Australian Academy of Sciences, Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts, Brazilian Academy of Sciences, Royal Society of Canada, Caribbean Academy of Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, French Academy of Sciences, German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina, Indian National Science Academy, Indonesian Academy of Sciences, Royal Irish Academy, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy), Academy of Sciences Malaysia, Academy Council of the Royal Society of New Zealand, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, and Royal Society (UK), 17 May, 2 pp.

Joint Science Academies, (2005) "Joint Science Academies’ Statement: Global Response to Climate Change", Joint statement released by the National Academies of Science of the G8 Countries plus China, India and Brazil, 7 June, 2 pp.

Joint Science Academies, (2007) "Joint Science Academies’ Statement on Growth and Responsibility: Sustainability, Energy Efficiency and Climate Protection", Joint statement released by the National Academies of Science of the G8 Countries plus Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa, 2 pp.

Joint Science Academies, (2008) "Joint Science Academies’ Statement: Climate Change Adaptation and the Transition to a Low Carbon Society", Joint statement released by the National Academies of Science of the G8 Countries plus Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa, 2 pp.

Kerr, R.A., (2007) "How Urgent Is Climate Change?" Science, Vol. 318, No. 5854, 23 November, pp. 1230-1231.

Kerr, R.A., (2007) "Pushing the Scary Side of Global Warming", Science, Vol. 316, No. 5830, 8 June, pp. 1412-1415.

Lean, J.L. and Rind, D.H., (2008) "How Natural and Anthropogenic Influences Alter Global and Regional Surface Temperatures: 1889 to 2006", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, L18701, 16 September, 6 pp.

Lean, J.L. and Rind, D.H., (2009) "How will Earth's Surface Temperature Change in Future Decades?" Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, No. 15, L15708, 15 August, 5 pp.

Lenton, T.M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J.W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S. and Schellnhuber, H.J., (2008) "Tipping Elements in the Earth's Climate System", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 105, No. 6, 12 February, pp. 1786-1793.

Le Quéré, C., Rödenbeck, C., Buitenhuis, E.T., Conway, T.J., Langenfelds, R., Gomez, A., Labuschagne, C., Ramonet, M., Nakazawa, T., Metzl, N., Gillett, N. and Heimann, M., (2007) "Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 Sink Due to Recent Climate Change", Science, Vol. 316, No. 5832, 22 June, pp. 1735-1738.

Le Quéré, C., Raupach, M.R., Canadell, J.G., Marland, G., Bopp, L., Ciais, P., Conway, T.J., Doney, S.C., Feely, R.A., Foster, P., Friedlingstein, P., Gurney, K., Houghton, R.A., House, J.I., Huntingford, C., Levy, P.E., Lomas, M.R., Majkut, J., Metzl, N., Ometto, J.P., Peters, G.P., Prentice, I.C., Randerson, J.T., Running, S.W., Sarmiento, J.L., Schuster, U., Sitch, S., Takahashi, T., Viovy, N., van der Werf, G.R. and Woodward, F.I., (2009) "Trends in the Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide", Nature Geoscience, Vol. 2, No. 12, December, pp. 831-836.

Lockwood, M. and Fröhlich, C., (2007) "Recent Oppositely Directed Trends in Solar Climate Forcings and the Global Mean Surface Air Temperature", Proceedings of the Royal Society A, Vol. 463, No. 2086, 8 October, pp. 2447–2460.

McNeil, B.I. and Matear, R.J., (2008) "Southern Ocean Acidification: A Tipping Point at 450-ppm Atmospheric CO2", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 105, No. 48, 2 December, pp. 18860-18864.

Menne, M.J., Williams, C.N., Jr. and Palecki, M.A., (2010) "On the Reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record", Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 115, No. D11, D11108, 8 June, 9 pp.

Overpeck, J.T., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., Miller, G.H., Muhs, D.R., Alley, R.B. and Kiehl, J.T., (2006) "Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise", Science, Vol. 311, No. 5768, 24 March, pp. 1747-1750.

Pearce, F., (2009) "Meltdown", New Scientist, Vol. 201, No. 2701, 28 March, pp. 32-36.

Pierce, J.R. and Adams, P.J., (2009) "Can Cosmic Rays Affect Cloud Condensation Nuclei by Altering New Particle Formation Rates?" Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, L09820, 13 May, 6 pp.

Pollard, D. and DeConto, R.M., (2009) "Modelling West Antarctic Ice Sheet Growth and Collapse through the Past Five Million Years", Nature, Vol. 458, No. 7236, 19 March, pp. 329-332.

Rahmstorf, S., (2007) "A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise", Science, Vol. 315, No. 5810, 19 January, pp. 368-370.

Raupach, M.R., Marland, G., Ciais, P., Le Quéré, C., Canadell, J.G., Klepper, G. and Field, C.B., (2007) "Global and Regional Drivers of Accelerating CO2 Emissions", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 104, No. 24, 12 June, pp. 10288-10293.

Reuters, (2008) "Climate Expert Stern 'Underestimated Problem'", The Age, Melbourne, 17 April.

Rosenzweig, C., Karoly, D., Vicarelli, M., Neofotis, P., Wu, Q., Casassa, G., Menzel, A., Root, T.L., Estrella, N., Seguin, B., Tryjanowski, P., Liu, C., Rawlins, S. and Imeson, A., (2008) "Attributing Physical and Biological Impacts to Anthropogenic Climate Change", Nature, Vol. 453, No. 7193, 15 May, pp. 353-357.

Royer, D.L., Berner, R.A., Montañez, I.P., Tabor, N.J. and Beerling, D.J., (2004) "CO2 as a Primary Driver of Phanerozoic Climate", GSA Today, Vol. 14, No. 3, March, pp. 4-10.

Royer, D.L., Berner, R.A. and Park, J., (2007) "Climate Sensitivity Constrained by CO2 Concentrations over the Past 420 Million Years", Nature, Vol. 446, No. 7135, 29 March, pp. 530-532.

Santer, B.D., Thorne, P.W., Haimberger, L., Taylor, K.E., Wigley, T.M.L., Lanzante, J.R., Solomon, S., Free, M., Gleckler, P.J., Jones, P.D., Karl, T.R., Klein, S.A., Mears, C., Nychka, D., Schmidt, G.A., Sherwood, S.C. and Wentz, F.J., (2008) "Consistency of Modelled and Observed Temperature Trends in the Tropical Troposphere", International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 28, No. 13, 15 November, pp. 1703-1722. See also their Factsheet.

Schiermeier, Q., (2008) "Climate Anomaly is an Artefact", Nature, Vol. 453, No. 7195, 28 May, p. 569. [Explains that the apparent cooling of sea temperatures in the 1940s was due to differences in measurement between US & British ships]

Screen, J.A. and Simmonds, I., (2010) "The Central Role of Diminishing Sea Ice in Recent Arctic Temperature Amplification", Nature, Vol. 464, No. 7293, 29 April, pp. 1334-1337.

Seidel, D.J., Fu, Q., Randel, W.J. and Reichler, T.J., (2008) "Widening of the Tropical Belt in a Changing Climate", Nature Geoscience, Vol. 1, No. 1, January, pp. 21-24.

Solanki, S.K., (2002) "Solar Variability and Climate Change: Is there a Link?" Astronomy & Geophysics, Vol. 43, No. 5, October, pp. 5.9-5.13.

Solanki, S.K. and Krivova, N.A., (2003) "Can Solar Variability Explain Global Warming Since 1970?" Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 108 (A5), 21 May, 7 pp.

Solomon, S., Plattner, G.-K., Knutti, R. and Friedlingstein, P., (2009) "Irreversible Climate Change Due to Carbon Dioxide Emissions", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 106, No. 6, 10 February, pp. 1704-1709.

Smith, A.P., (2008) "Proof of the Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect", 29 February, 9 pp.

Smith, J.B., Schneider, S.H., Oppenheimer, M., Yohe, G.W., Hare, W., Mastrandrea, M.D., Patwardhan, A., Burton, I., Corfee-Morlot, J., Magadza, C.H.D., Füssel, H.-M., Pittock, A.B., Rahman, A., Suarez, A. and van Ypersele, J.-P., (2009) "Assessing Dangerous Climate Change through an Update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "Reasons for Concern"", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 106, No. 11, 17 March, pp. 4133–4137.

Stott, P.A., Stone, D.A. and Allen, M.R., (2004) "Human Contribution to the European Heatwave of 2003", Nature, Vol. 432, No. 7017, 2 December, pp. 610-614.

Stroeve, J., Holland, M.M., Meier, W., Scambos, T. and Serreze, M., (2007) "Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Faster than Forecast", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, No. 9, 1 May, L09501, 5 pp.

Taylor, K.C., Lamorey, G.W., Doyle, G.A., Alley, R.B., Grootes, P.M., Mayewski, P.A., White, J.W.C. and Barlow, L.K., (1993) "The 'Flickering Switch' of Late Pleistocene Climate Change", Nature, Vol. 361, No. 6411, 4 February, pp. 432-436.

Union of Concerned Scientists, (2008) "U.S. Scientists and Economists’ Call for Swift and Deep Cuts in Greenhouse Gas Emissions", Cambridge, MA, Union of Concerned Scientists, May, 67 pp.

Vaughan, D.G. and Arthern, R., (2007) "Why Is It Hard to Predict the Future of Ice Sheets?" Science, Vol. 315, No. 5818, 16 March, pp. 1503-1504.

Walter, K.M., Zimov, S.A., Chanton, J.P., Verbyla, D. and Chapin, F.S., III, (2006) "Methane Bubbling from Siberian Thaw Lakes as a Positive Feedback to Climate Warming", Nature, Vol. 443, No. 7107, 7 September, pp. 71-75.

Wang, M. and Overland, J.E., (2009) "A Sea Ice Free Summer Arctic Within 30 Years?" Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, No. 7,  L07502, 3 April, 5 pp.

Webster, P.J., Holland, G.J., Curry, J.A. and Chang, H.-R., (2005) "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment", Science, Vol. 309, No. 5742, 16 September, pp. 1844-1846.

Zhang, X., Zwiers, F.W., Hegerl, G.C., Lambert, F.H., Gillett, N.P., Solomon, S., Stott, P.A. and Nozawa, T., (2007) "Detection of Human Influence on Twentieth-Century Precipitation Trends", Nature, Vol. 448, No. 7152, 26 July, pp. 461-466.

Zwally, H.J., Abdalati, W., Herring, T., Larson, K., Saba, J. and Steffen, K., (2002) "Surface Melt-Induced Acceleration of Greenland Ice-Sheet Flow", Science, Vol. 297, No. 5579, 12 July, pp. 218-222.

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Climate Change - Mitigation

ACTU and ACF, (2008) "Green Gold Rush: How Ambitious Environmental Policy Can Make Australia a Leader in the Global Race for Green Jobs", Melbourne, Australian Council of Trade Unions and Australian Conservation Foundation, October, 36 pp.

Allen Consulting, (2006) "Deep Cuts in Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Economic, Social and Environmental Impacts for Australia", Melbourne & Sydney, The Allen Consulting Group, March, vii + 60 pp .

Baer, P. and Mastrandrea, M., (2006) "High Stakes: Designing Emissions Pathways to Reduce the Risk of Dangerous Climate Change", London, Institute for Public Policy Research, November, 37 pp.

den Elzen, M. and Meinshausen, M., (2005) "Meeting the EU 2°C Climate Target: Global and Regional Emission Implications", Report 728001031/2005, Bilthoven, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 44 pp.

den Elzen, M., Hof, A.F., Mendoza Beltran, M.A., Roelfsema, M., van Ruijven, B.J., van Vliet, J., van Vuuren, D.P., Höhne, N. and Moltmann, S., (2010) "Evaluation of the Copenhagen Accord: Chances and Risks for the 2°C Climate Goal", Report No. 500114018, Bilthoven & The Hague, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), May, 69 pp.

Diesendorf, M., (2007) "Paths to a Low-Carbon Future: Reducing Australia's Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 30 per cent by 2020", Epping, NSW, Sustainability Centre, September, 32 pp.

European Commission, (2007) Limiting Global Climate Change to 2° Celsius: The way ahead for 2020 and beyond, Communication from the Commission to the Council, the European Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, Brussels, Commission of the European Communities, 10 January, 13 pp.

Kollmuss, A., Zink, H. and Polycarp, C., (2008) "A Comparison of Carbon Offset Standards - Making Sense of the Voluntary Carbon Market", WWF Germany, Stockholm Environment Institute & Tricorona, March, x + 105 pp.

McKinsey & Company, (2008) "An Australian Cost Curve for Greenhouse Gas Reduction", McKinsey & Co., February, 25 pp.

Make Poverty History (2008) See The Bigger Picture, Act on Climate Change: Australian Action on Climate Change: A Guide for Garnaut and the Government, 29 pp.

Meinshausen, M., (2006) "<2°C Trajectories - a Brief Background Note", Paper presented at the KyotoPlus Conference, 28-29 September, Berlin, 11 pp.

Meinshausen, M., (2006) "What Does a 2°C Target Mean for Greenhouse Gas Concentrations? A Brief Analysis Based on Multi-Gas Emission Pathways and Several Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty Estimates", In Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change ed. Schellnhuber, H.J., Cramer, W., Nakicenovic, N., Wigley, T.M.L. and Yohe, G.; Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 265-279.

Meinshausen, M., Hare, B., Wigley, T., van Vuuren, D.P., den Elzen, M.G.J. and Swart, R., (2006) "Multi-Gas Emissions Pathways to Meet Climate Targets", Climatic Change, Vol. 75, No. 1-2, March, pp. 151-194.

Meinshausen, M., Meinshausen, N., Hare, W., Raper, S.C.B., Frieler, K., Knutti, R., Frame, D.J. and Allen, M.R., (2009) "Greenhouse-Gas Emission Targets for Limiting Global Warming to 2ºC", Nature, Vol. 458, No. 7242, 30 April, pp. 1158-1162.

Pacala, S. and Socolow, R., (2004) "Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies", Science, Vol. 305, No. 5686, 13 August, pp. 968-972.

Ramanathan, V. and Xu, Y., (2010) "The Copenhagen Accord for Limiting Global Warming: Criteria, Constraints, and Available Avenues", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 107, No. 18, 4 May, pp. 8055-8062.

Riedy, C. and Diesendorf, M., (2003) "Financial Subsidies to the Australian Fossil Fuel Industry", Energy Policy, Vol. 31, No. 2, January, pp. 125-137.

Rogelj, J., Nabel, J., Chen, C., Hare, W., Markmann, K., Meinshausen, M., Schaeffer, M., Macey, K. and Hohne, N., (2010) "Copenhagen Accord Pledges are Paltry", Nature, Vol. 464, No. 7292, 22 April, pp. 1126-1128.

Saddler, H., Diesendorf, M. and Denniss, R., (2007) "Clean Energy Scenarios for Australia", Energy Policy, Vol. 35, No. 2, February, pp. 1245-1256.

The Pew Charitable Trusts, (2009) The Clean Energy Economy: Repowering Jobs, Businesses and Investments Across America, The Pew Charitable Trusts, Washington DC, 59 pp.

UNEP, (2008) Green Jobs: Towards Decent Work in a Sustainable, Low-Carbon World, Worldwatch Institute, Washington DC for UNEP, Nairobi, xx + 352 pp. 

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Climate Change - Impacts & Adaptation

Brown, M.E. and Funk, C.C., (2008) "Food Security Under Climate Change", Science, Vol. 319, No. 5863, 1 February, pp. 580-581.

Busby, J.W., (2007) "Climate Change and National Security: An Agenda for Action", Washington DC, Council on Foreign Relations, November, pp. vii + 32.

Busby, J.W., (2008) "Who Cares about the Weather?: Climate Change and U.S. National Security", Security Studies, Vol. 17, No. 3, pp. 468-504.

Campbell, K.M., Gulledge, J., McNeill, J.R., Podesta, J., Ogden, P., Fuerth, L., Woolsey, R.J., Lennon, A.T.J., Smith, J., Weitz, R. and Mix, D., (2007) "The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change", Washington DC, Center for Strategic and International Studies & Center for a New American Century, November, 119 pp.

Campbell, K.M. (Ed.) (2008) Climatic Cataclysm: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Climate Change, Brookings Institution Press, Washington DC, viii + 237  pp.

CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, (2007) "Climate Change in Australia: Technical Report", Canberra, CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 148 pp.

Dasgupta, S., Laplante, B., Meisner, C., Wheeler, D. and Yan, J., (2007) "The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis", Policy Research Working Paper No. 4136, Washington DC, World Bank, February, 51 pp.

DuPont, A. and Pearman, G., (2006) "Heating Up the Planet: Climate Change and Security", Lowy Institute Paper 12, Sydney, Lowy Institute for International Policy, 143 pp.

Dupont, A., (2008) "The Strategic Implications of Climate Change", Survival, Vol. 50, No. 3, June - July, pp. 29-54.

FAO, (2007) "Climate Change and Food Security: A Framework Document - Summary", Rome, Food and Agriculture Organization, 21 pp.

FitzGerald, D.M., Fenster, M.S., Argow, B.A. and Buynevich, I.V., (2008) "Coastal Impacts Due to Sea-Level Rise", Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Vol. 36, May, pp. 601-647.

HREOC, (2008) "Human Rights and Climate Change", Background Paper, Sydney, Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commission, 27 pp.

Lin, I.-I., Chen, C.-H., Pun, I.-F., Liu, W.T. and Wu, C.-C., (2009) "Warm Ocean Anomaly, Air Sea Fluxes, and the Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclone Nargis", Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, L03817, 11 February, 5 pp.

Lucas, C., Hennessy, K., Mills, G. and Bathols, J., (2007) "Bushfire Weather in Southeast Australia: Recent Trends and Projected Climate Change Impacts", Consultancy Report prepared for The Climate Institute of Australia, Sydney & Melbourne, Bushfire CRC Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, September, iv + 80 pp.

Morton, J.F., (2007) "The Impact of Climate Change on Smallholder and Subsistence Agriculture", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 104, No. 50, 11 December, pp. 19680-19685.

National Climate Centre, (2009) "Special Climate Statement 17: The Exceptional January-February 2009 Heatwave in South-Eastern Australia", Melbourne, Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Government, 9 February, 11 pp.

Oxfam, (2007) "Adapting to Climate Change: What's Needed in Poor Countries and Who Should Pay", Oxford, Oxfam International, May, 47 pp.

Parmesan, C. and Yohe, G., (2003) "A Globally Coherent Fingerprint of Climate Change Impacts Across Natural Systems", Nature, Vol. 421, No. 6918, 2 January, pp. 37-42.

Preston, B.L., Suppiah, R., Macadam, I. and Bathols, J., (2006) "Climate Change in the Asia/Pacific Region: A Consultancy Report Prepared for the Climate Change and Development Roundtable", Melbourne, Climate Change Impacts and Risk, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, October, 89 pp.
 
Save the Children, (2008) "In the Face of Disaster: Children and Climate Change", London, Save the Children UK, June, 20 pp.

Schmidhuber, J. and Tubiello, F.N., (2007) "Global Food Security Under Climate Change", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 104, No. 50, 11 December, pp. 19703-19708.

Sherwood, S.C. and Huber, M., (2010) "An Adaptability Limit to Climate Change Due to Heat Stress", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 107, No. 21, May 25, 2010, pp. 9552-9555.

UNDP, (2009) "Resource Guide on Gender and Climate Change", New York, United Nations Development Program, xvii + 133 pp.

UNICEF, (2007) "Climate Change and Children", New York, United National Children's Fund, December, 20 pp.

UNICEF, (2008) "Climate Change and Children: A Human Security Challenge", Policy Review Paper, Florence, UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre, November, x + 51 pp.

UNICEF UK, (2008) "Climate Change: Our Climate, Our Children, Our Responsibility - The Implications of Climate Change for the World's Children", London, UNICEF UK, 36 pp.

WBGU, (2007) "World in Transition – Climate Change as a Security Risk: Summary for Policy Makers", Berlin, German Advisory Council on Global Change, 13 pp.

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Climate Change - Economic Models

Ackerman, F., DeCanio, S.J., Howarth, R.B. and Kristen, S., (2009) "Limits of Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change", Climatic Change, Vol. 95, No. 3-4, August, pp. 297-315.

Ackerman, F., Stanton, E.A. and Bueno, R., (2010) "Fat Tails, Exponents, Extreme Uncertainty: Simulating Catastrophe in DICE", Ecological Economics, Vol. 69, No. 8, 15 June, pp. 1657-1665.

Ayres, R.U., (2008) "Sustainability Economics: Where do we Stand?" Ecological Economics, Vol. 67, No. 2, September, pp. 281-310.

NEW  Bauman, Y., (2010) "Grading Economics Textbooks on Climate Change", Seattle WA, sightline Institute, 17 pp. 

DeCanio, S.J., (2005) "Descriptive or Conceptual Models? Contributions of Economics to the Climate Policy Debate", International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Vol. 5, No. 4, December, pp. 415-427.

Hall, D.C. and Behl, R.J., (2006) "Integrating Economic Analysis and the Science of Climate Instability", Ecological Economics, Vol. 57, No. 3, 25 May, pp. 442-465.

Hallegatte, S., Hourcade, J.-C. and Dumas, P., (2007) "Why Economic Dynamics Matter in Assessing Climate Change Damages: Illustration on Extreme Events", Ecological Economics, Vol. 62, No. 2, April, pp. 330-340.

Michael, J.A., (2007) "Episodic Flooding and the Cost of Sea-level Rise", Ecological Economics, Vol. 63, No. 1, 15 June, pp. 149-159.

Voinov, A. and Farley, J., (2007) "Reconciling Sustainability, Systems Theory and Discounting", Ecological Economics, Vol. 63, No. 1, June, pp. 104-113.

Stern, N.H., (2008) "The Economics of Climate Change", American Economic Review, Vol. 98, No. 2, May, pp. 1-37.

Weitzman, M.L., (2009) "On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change", Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 91, No. 1, February, pp. 1-19.

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Climate Change - Health

Alsop, Z., (2007) "Malaria Returns to Kenya's Highlands as Temperatures Rise", The Lancet, Vol. 370, No. 9591, 15 September, pp. 925-926.

Campbell-Lendrum, D., Bertollini, R., Neira, M., Ebi, K. and McMichael, A., (2009) "Health and Climate Change: A Roadmap for Applied Research", The Lancet, Vol. 373, No. 9676, 16 May, pp. 1663-1665.

Costello, A., Abbas, M., Allen, A., Ball, S., Bell, S., Bellamy, R., Friel, S., Groce, N., Johnson, A., Kett, M., Lee, M., Levy, C., Maslin, M., McCoy, D., McGuire, B., Montgomery, H., Napier, D., Pagel, C., Patel, J., de Oliveira, J.A.P., Redclift, N., Rees, H., Rogger, D., Scott, J., Stephenson, J., Twigg, J., Wolff, J. and Patterson, C., (2009) "Managing the Health Effects of Climate Change: Lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission", The Lancet, Vol. 373, No. 9676, 16 May, pp. 1693-1733.

Epstein, P.R., (2000) "Is Global Warming Harmful to Health?" Scientific American, Vol. 283, No. 2, August, pp. 50-57.

Haines, A., Kovats, R.S., Campbell-Lendrum, D. and Corvalan, C., (2006) "Climate Change and Human Health: Impacts, Vulnerability, and Mitigation", The Lancet, Vol. 367, No. 9528, 24 June, pp. 2101-2109.

Lim, V., Stubbs, J.W., Nahar, N., Amarasena, N., Chaudry, Z.U., Weng, S.C.K., Mayosi, B., van der Spuy, Z., Liang, R., Lai, K.N., Metz, G., Fitzgerald, G.W.N., Williams, B., Douglas, N., Donohoe, J., Darnchaivijir, S., Coker, P. and Gilmore, I., (2009) "Politicians Must Heed Health Effects of Climate Change", British Medical Journal, Vol. 339, No. 7722, 19 September, pp. 647.

McMichael, A. and Butler, C., (2004) "Climate Change, Health, and Development Goals", The Lancet, Vol. 364, No. 9450, 4 December, pp. 2004-2006.

Patz, J.A., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Holloway, T. and Foley, J.A., (2005) "Impact of Regional Climate Change on Human Health", Nature, Vol. 438, No. 7066, 17 November, pp. 310-317.

VicHealth, (2009) "January 2009 Heatwave in Victoria: An Assessment of Health Impacts", Melbourne, Victorian Government Department of Human Services, 20 pp.

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Climate Change - Sceptics & Denialists

Begley, S., (2007) "The Truth About Denial", Newsweek, 13 August.

Jones, D., Watkins, A., Braganza, K. and Coughlan, M., (2007) ""The Great Global Warming Swindle": A Short Critique", Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Vol. 20, No. 3, June, pp. 63-72.

Peterson, T.C., Connolley, W.M. and Fleck, J., (2008) "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 89, No. 9, September, pp. 1325-1337. Preprint here.

Revkin, A.C., (2009) "Industry Ignored Its Scientists on Climate", New York Times, New York.

Union of Concerned Scientists, (2007) "Smoke, Mirrors & Hot Air: How ExxonMobil Uses Big Tobacco’s Tactics to Manufacture Uncertainty on Climate Science", Cambridge, MA, Union of Concerned Scientists, January, 63 pp.

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Quotes

CO2 emissions are accelerating
“CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning and industrial processes have been accelerating at a global scale, with their growth rate increasing from 1.1% y-1 [per year] for 1990-1999 to > [more than] 3% y-1 [per year] for 2000-2004. The emissions growth rate since 2000 was greater than for the most fossil-fuel intensive of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios developed in the late 1990s. … No region is decarbonizing its energy supply. The growth rate in emissions is strongest in rapidly developing economies, particularly China. Together, the developing and least-developed economies (forming 80% of the world's population) accounted for 73% of global emissions growth in 2004 but only 41% of global emissions and only 23% of global cumulative emissions since the mid-18th century. The results have implications for global equity.”
Raupach, M.R., Marland, G., Ciais, P., Le Quéré, C., Canadell, J.G., Klepper, G. and Field, C.B., (2007) "Global and Regional Drivers of Accelerating CO2 Emissions", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 104, No. 24, 12 June, pp. 10288-10293; p. 10288.

Is warming the sun's fault?
“Over the past 20 years, all the trends in the Sun that could have had an influence on the Earth's climate have been in the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures.”
Lockwood, M. and Fröhlich, C., (2007) "Recent Oppositely Directed Trends in Solar Climate Forcings and the Global Mean Surface Air Temperature", Proceedings of the Royal Society A, Vol. 463, No. 2086, October, pp. 2447–2460; p. 2447.

“We employ time series of the most relevant solar quantities, the total and UV irradiance between 1856 and 1999 and the cosmic rays flux between 1868 and 1999. The time series are constructed using direct measurements wherever possible and reconstructions based on models and proxies at earlier times. These time series are compared with the climate record for the period 1856 to 1970. The solar records are scaled such that statistically the solar contribution to climate is as large as possible in this period. Under this assumption we repeat the comparison but now including the period 1970–1999. This comparison shows without requiring any recourse to modeling that since roughly 1970 the solar influence on climate (through the channels considered here) cannot have been dominant. In particular, the Sun cannot have contributed more than 30% to the steep temperature increase that has taken place since then, irrespective of which of the three considered channels is the dominant one determining Sun-climate interactions: tropospheric heating caused by changes in total solar irradiance, stratospheric chemistry influenced by changes in the solar UV spectrum, or cloud coverage affected by the cosmic ray flux.”
Solanki, S.K. and Krivova, N.A., (2003) "Can Solar Variability Explain Global Warming Since 1970?" Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 108 (A5), 21 May, pp. 7.

We could trigger major sea-level rises
"[I]ce sheets have contributed meters above modern sea level in response to modest warming, with peak rates of sea-level rise possibly exceeding 1 m/century. Current knowledge cannot rule out a return to such conditions in response to continued greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, a threshold triggering many meters of sea-level rise could be crossed well before the end of this century, particularly given that high levels of anthropogenic soot may hasten future ice-sheet melting …, the Antarctic could warm much more than 129,000 years ago [when sea levels were 4-6 m higher] … and future warming will continue for decades and persist for centuries even after the forcing [the gas levels causing climate change] is stabilized."
Overpeck, J.T., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., Miller, G.H., Muhs, D.R., Alley, R.B. and Kiehl, J.T., (2006) "Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise", Science, Vol. 311, No. 5768, 24 March, pp. 1747-1750; p. 1750.

The likely impacts of even modest sea-level rise
“Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global threat: The scientific evidence is now overwhelming. Continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated global warming could well promote SLR of 1m-3m in this century, and unexpectedly rapid breakup of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets might produce a 5m SLR. In this paper, we have assessed the consequences of continued SLR for 84 developing countries. Geographic Information System (GIS) software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially-disaggregated global data on critical impact elements (land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP) with the inundation zones projected for 1-5m SLR. Our results reveal that hundreds of millions of people in the developing world are likely to be displaced by SLR within this century; and accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe for many. … To date, there is little evidence that the international community has seriously considered the implications of SLR for population location and infrastructure planning in developing countries.”
Dasgupta, S., Laplante, B., Meisner, C., Wheeler, D. and Yan, J., (2007) "The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis", Policy Research Working Paper No. 4136, Washington DC, World Bank, February, 51 pp; p. 2.

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Links

Science

BraveNewClimate - an excellent blog by Professor Barry Brook from the University of Adelaide

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center - US Department of Energy

Climate Analytics - "We are a non-profit organization based in Potsdam, Germany, with staff in Africa and Australia. CLIMATE ANALYTICS has been established to assess and synthesize climate change science relevant to international climate policy negotiations. We provide scientific, policy and analytical support for small island states and the least developed country group negotiators, as well as for governments, non-governmental organizations and other stakeholders in the ‘post-2012’ negotiations."

ClimatePrediction.net - "a distributed computing project to produce predictions of the Earth's climate up to 2080 and to test the accuracy of climate models" - uses your computer when you''re not using it.

El Niño Theme Page - U.S. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Global Carbon Project "was formed to assist the international science community to establish a common, mutually agreed knowledge base supporting policy debate and action to slow the rate of increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere."

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Everyone with a pulse who is capable of reading the IPCC's Summaries for Policymakers should do so.

Jim Hansen - Director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York & Adjunct Professor, Columbia University.

MET Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research - "The Met Office Hadley Centre provides a focus in the UK for the scientific issues associated with climate change."

Monash Sustainability Institute - Monash University, Melbourne, which includes the Regional Climate Group.

NOAA Paleoclimatology - U.S. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Pew Center on Global Climate Change

RealClimate - Climate science from climate scientists.

Scripps Institution of Oceanography

The Discovery of Global Warming - by Spencer Weart. An excellent online book, which can be downloaded in its entirety here.

The Global Warming Debate - A laymans guide to the science

Data

Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis

Climate Data Links - A great links page for all kinds of climate data

CSIRO - Historic sea-level changes

Data on Current CO2 Levels

Global Glacier Changes - Facts & Figures

Hadley Centre - UK

National Snow and Ice Data Center

UNFCCC data on emissions

U.S. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): Annual Greenhouse Gas Index      National Climatic Data Center     Global Surface Temperature Anomalies

Sceptics & Denialists

Climate Change Denial - A blog exploring the psychology of climate change denial

Climate Change Denial Crock of the Week - A series of videos on YouTube.

DeSmogBlog - exists "to clear the PR pollution that is clouding the science on climate change" Eg. Slamming the climate skeptic scam.

ExxonSecrets - A site documenting Exxon-Mobil's funding of climate change 'sceptics'.

George Monbiot on The Semantics of Denial

Greenfyre 

How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic - from GristMill.

Lomborg Errors - An excellent compilation of the numerous errors in Bjørn Lomborg's books such as The Skeptical Environmentalist and Cool It.

Skeptical Science - 'Examining the science of global warming skepticism'

The Consensus on Global Warming - from LogicalScience

Tim Lambert on the war on science - particularly from The Australian newspaper.

Union of Concerned Scientists. Check out their report on Exxon's use of tobacco-lobby tactics to confuse the public on climate change.

Reviews of Ian Plimer's Heaven + Earth:

Michael Ashley in The Weekend Australian: No Science in Plimer's Primer

Barry Brook's assessment on BraveNewClimate

Ian Enting from Melbourne Uni's point-by-point refutation

Tim Lambert's debunking at Deltoid

Impacts & Adaptation

Children in a Changing Climate

Climate Adaptation Science and Policy Initiative (CASPI) - Melbourne University.

Climate Change in Australia - A major report by Australia's CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology.

Climate Change and Security papers from the Nautilus Institute at RMIT University, Australia.

Commission on Climate Change and Development

FAO's Climate Change site - From the UN's Food & Agriculture Organization.

Other

ABC - A journey through climate history

Al Gore presentation on the climate crisis filmed March 2008.

Australian Youth Climate Coalition (AYCC)

Breaking the Climate Deadlock

CANA - Climate Action Network Australia. Lot's of good material here, for example: The Kyoto Protocol for Beginners.

Climate Emergency Network

E3G - "Change agents for sustainable development"

Earth Institute - Colombia University

FIELD - Foundation for International Environmental Law and Development. FIELD's vision: "A fair, effective and accessible system of international law that protects the global environment and promotes sustainable development."

Garnaut Review - The Review for Australia overseen by Professor Ross Garnaut.

Global Campaign for Climate Action - "The Global Campaign for Climate Action (GCCA) is a bold, new initiative involving a growing number of national and global organizations in support of a single goal: to mobilize civil society and to galvanize public opinion in support of transformational change and rapid action to save the planet from dangerous levels of climate change."

IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. IIASA "conducts inter-disciplinary scientific studies on environmental, economic, technological, and social issues in the context of human dimensions of global change" including a Risk and Vulnerability Program around climate change.

IIED - International Institute for Environment and Development (UK)

International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) - Columbia University

IISD - International Institute for Sustainable Development (Canada). IISD runs an outstanding reporting service covering international conferences, meetings and negotiations. IISD's lists such as Climate-List.org  are well worth subscribing to. Their Earth Negotiations Bulletin is the best source of public information on what's happening during the negotiations and at side events.

Integrated Assessment Journal - "an interdisciplinary publication aimed at addressing complex public policy challenges" from The Integrated Assessment Society.

Science & Development Network (SciDev.Net) - Climate Change & Energy

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) This is where you'll find the text of the Kyoto Protocol, data on greenhouse gas emissions, etc.

Wake Up, Freak Out, then Get a Grip - A brilliant short animated film on the science and implications of climate change and what we need to do to rein it in. Well worth watching.

World Bank's Climate Change Research site.

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