#acl All:read Default

''Written in response to a [http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/baillieu-to-promise-more-police-20100405-rn45.html (front page) article in The Age].''

== It's about Crime Rates, not total Number ==

''
Crime up 40% under Bracks/Brumby? Really? ('Ballieu to promise more police', The Age 9 April 2010) Thankfully this time the devil is in the bold print, not the detail, Mr Austin. I'm actually not that concerned by the total number of crime events -- though each is saddening -- rather, I want to know how safe am I personally? This is a question of the likelihood of an attack per individual, not the total number of attacks happening state-wide. So the relevant statistic is crime per 100,000, not just the total number. So perhaps this was too difficult for Ballieu/Austin to calculate?

No, not really. After a minute's searching I downloaded the Victorian Police Crime Statistics report 2008/2009. In no less than the Executive Summary (p.1), and Figure 2 (p.6), we read that crime rate per 100,000 has fallen by over 25% during the Bracks/Brumby decade. So actually, after accounting for population growth, we're safer, not less so as Ballieu/Austin would have us believe.

Oh and by the way, there's no comfort here for Brumby either -- the heavy lifting on crime happened prior to 2004/2005. Since then, the trend is flat. Time for some more police after all?
''

= Refs =
 * [http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/baillieu-to-promise-more-police-20100405-rn45.html '''The Age''': ''Baillieu to promise more police''']
 * [http://www.police.vic.gov.au/retrievemedia.asp?Media_ID=32668 Victorian Police Crime Statistics Report 2008/2009]
 * [http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0 ABS Summary population data 2009]