Written in response to a (front page) article in The Age.

It's about Crime Rates, not total Number

Crime up 40% under Bracks/Brumby? Really? ('Ballieu to promise more police', The Age 9 April 2010) Thankfully this time the devil is in the bold print, not the detail, Mr Austin. I'm actually not that concerned by the total number of crime events -- though each is saddening -- rather, I want to know how safe am I personally? This is a question of the likelihood of an attack per individual, not the total number of attacks happening state-wide. So the relevant statistic is crime per 100,000, not just the total number. So perhaps this was too difficult for Ballieu/Austin to calculate?

No, not really. After a minute's searching I downloaded the Victorian Police Crime Statistics report 2008/2009. In no less than the Executive Summary (p.1), and Figure 2 (p.6), we read that crime rate per 100,000 has fallen by over 25% during the Bracks/Brumby decade. So actually, after accounting for population growth, we're safer, not less so as Ballieu/Austin would have us believe.

Oh and by the way, there's no comfort here for Brumby either -- the heavy lifting on crime happened prior to 2004/2005. Since then, the trend is flat. Time for some more police after all?


Leviathan: sangus/CrimeRateNotTotal (last edited 2010-04-08 23:41:34 by sangus)