[01] >>

^MML^ |

See:
L. J. Fitzgibbon, L. Allison & D. L. Dowe.
*Minimum message length grouping of ordered data*.
Proc. 11th Int. Workshop on Algorithmic Learning Theory
(ALT'2000)
pp56-70, Sydney,

This
document is online at
**users.monash.edu.au/~lloyd/Seminars/Series-Seg01/index.shtml
**
and contains hyper-links to more detailed notes on certain topics and
to some of the references.

<< [02] >>

- Given a sequence, s
_{1}, ..., s_{n}, of multivariate data, - divide it into k segments (i.e. k-1 cut-points)
- that best describe the data

- a difficult problem if data ranges of neigbouring segments overlap.

Simplest model: One segment.

Most complex model: One segment per element (over-fitting).<< [03] >>

e.g. Generated data, 4 segments, 3 cut-points, means & S.D.s shown

<< [04] >>

- Given k,
- if c
_{1}, c_{2}, ..., c_{k-1}are k-1 optimal cut-points for s_{1}, ..., s_{ik-1} - then c
_{1}, c_{2}, ..., c_{k-2}are k-2 optimal cut-points for s_{1}, ..., s_{ik-2}

- compute optimal 1_segmentations for s
_{1}, .., s_{i}, for all i=1..n - iteratively
- compute optimal k_segmentations from the optimal k-1_segmentations

- to some maximum value K

<< [05] >>

2 segments, Least Squares

<< [06] >>

3 segments LSq

<< [07] >>

4 segments LSq

<< [08] >>

5 segments LSq

<< [09] >>

But Fisher's algorithm (1958) has no stopping criterion: Least squares differences (say) decrease as k-->n.

Solution: Model has a message length (cost) . . .- [Integer] # segments
- Cut-point positions to
*appropriate accuracy* - For each segment: its parameters to
*appropriate accuracy* - NB. Can get ``sufficient statistics'' for i..j from those for 1..i-1 and for 1..j.

<< [10] >>

MML fit:

<< [11] >>

Real-World Data, MML:

W. Fisher's data: 96 years of Lake Michigan Huron

<< [12] >>

Real-World Data, MML:

<< [13] >>

MML:

140 years of lake levels . . .

<< [14]

- Minimum Message Length gives a stopping criterion (no overfitting).
- Time Complexity O(K.N
^{2}) where K is max # of segments considered

- W. D. Fisher.
*On grouping for maximum homogeneity.*Jrnl. Am. Stat. Soc.**53**pp789-798 1958.

Dynamic programming algorithm, no stopping criterion. - R. A. Baxter & J. J. Oliver.
*The kindest cut: minimum message length segmentation*. Proc. 7th Int. Workshop on Algorithmic Learning Theory pp83-90, LCNS V1160, Springer-Verlag, 1996.

Binary data, investigates precision of stating cut-points - L. J. Fitzgibbon, L. Allison & D. L. Dowe.
*Minimum message length grouping of ordered data.*Proc. 11th Int. Workshop on Algorithmic Learning Theory (ALT'2000), pp56-70, Sydney,LNCS V1968 , Springer-Verlag,December 2000 .

Multivariate data, dynamic programming algorithm, avoids stating cut-points! - Data: [1860-1955] ++ [1918-1999] ==> [1860-1999]

© L. Allison, School of Computer Science and Software Engineering, Monash University, Australia 3168. Created with "vi (Linux & IRIX)", charset=iso-8859-1