Initialization of the Land Surface in Seasonal-to-Interannual Predictions

Overview

Soil Moisture v Sea Surface Temp

Precipitation Predictability Index

Importance of Soil Moisture

Initialization Approach

SMMR Polarization Ratio (Mean)

SMMR Polarization Ratio (Std Dev)

Tier 1: Better Forcing

The Catchment Discretization

Re-analysis: Grid to Catchment

Observations: Grid to Catchment

Bias Correction: Air Temperature

ISLSCP v ECMWF

Tier 2: Assimilation

Why Assimilate Soil Moisture?

What is Data Assimilation ?

Catchment Hydrological Regimes

The Catchment-Based LSM

Numerical Experiments

Soil Moisture: January 30

Soil Moisture: July 31

Soil Moisture: December 29

“Errors” in Assimilated Moisture: 1

“Errors” in Assimilated Moisture: 2

Monthly Evapotranspiration

Monthly Runoff

Summary

Near-Term Goals

Importance of Snow

Snow Assimilation: NCEP ETA

Snow Assimilation: NSIPP