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Meteorological drought – rainfall deficit in the 5-10 percentile or lower for 12 months (3 or more months??) or 3 consecutive failed seasons (rare and severe)
NOAA’s GDAS forcing used for both land surface models.
Areas needing soil moisture are areas with the greatest difference in LSM predictions in slide 5 This slide is for Northern Hemisphere summer! Australia shows greater need during Southern Hemisphere Summer.
Note: Surface moisture “breaths”
Passive Microwave -> all weather capability, less affected by roughness, topography and vegetation
Brightness Temp – soil moisture and temperature
SMMR -> AMSR (6.6GHz) and TRMM (10.7GHz)
L-band ideal
C-band affected in Europe
Requires covariance forecasts
Prohibitive for large systems without simplifications
Requires tangent linear model
May be unstable for highly non-linear problems
Basis for most sequential methods ie OI, nudging, PSAS etc
We will concentrate on the Kalman filter in this presentation
Autumn 1982 reasonable rains fairly widespread. Except for southern Western Australia Intense drought become established in most areas east of a line from Alice Springs to Ceduna with the onset of winter Very dry conditions persisted through spring over eastern Australia (except coastal northern New South Wales)
The summer wet season failed in the Northern Territory and north Queensland
Peak reached in February 1983
Relief came in March – low pressure developed over Northwestern Australia on the 12th, and drifted eastward with heavy rain and flooding over next week, then tracked south to Tasmania by 23rd – record March totals Widespread heavy rains in March 1983, heavy April rains and record May rains
1982/83 drought affected almost all of eastern Australia and was particularly severe in south eastern Australia
Severe droughts in south eastern Australia are usually caused by failure of the winter-spring rains and extend through summer to the following autumn
Only small parts of southeast Queensland, adjacent notheast New South Wales and parts of southwest and northeast Tasmania were free from drought.
1:30am/pm
Locations of AMSR-E soil moisture calibration/validation sites; no on-ground data collection planned (black circles); soil moisture profile data routinely collected (green circles); intensive field campaigns planned (blue circles); intensive field campaigns probable (purple circles); and our proposed intensive field campaigns (red circle).
Consider a layer of soil 2.5 m thick, with 50% porosity.  A change of 2% v/v in moisture content of this layer would produce a change in the gravitational acceleration at the surface of 1 mG  (10 nm s-2), which is at the limit of resolution of present-day gravimeters.
Additional sites for the measurement of gravity, soil moisture and groundwater level will be installed across the Murrumbidgee at two distinct scales.  Seven additional sites will be installed to provide measurements approximately every 50 km in the east-west transect.  A further fifteen sites will be installed in the Kyeamba Ck sub-catchment to provide data on an approximate 3 km ´ 3 km grid. (Total of 22 extra soil moisture sites)